Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.022921 0.026053 0.029472 0.033481 0.038057 0.043121 0.049157
2025-02-16 0.017748 0.021963 0.026979 0.033396 0.041407 0.051100 0.063751
2025-02-23 0.015020 0.019684 0.025566 0.033553 0.044151 0.057781 0.076725
2025-03-02 0.012891 0.017696 0.024052 0.033109 0.045741 0.062826 0.087833
2025-03-09 0.011638 0.016634 0.023520 0.033756 0.048672 0.069753 0.102052
2025-03-16 0.010347 0.015324 0.022440 0.033420 0.050053 0.074501 0.113521
2025-03-23 0.009657 0.014780 0.022355 0.034456 0.053462 0.082440 0.130488
2025-03-30 0.008556 0.013487 0.021001 0.033384 0.053476 0.085138 0.139481
2025-04-06 0.007760 0.012574 0.020121 0.032928 0.054355 0.089189 0.150962
2025-04-13 0.006910 0.011485 0.018848 0.031685 0.053782 0.090759 0.158360
2025-04-20 0.006609 0.011264 0.018954 0.032727 0.057114 0.099120 0.178285
2025-04-27 0.006300 0.010997 0.018949 0.033560 0.060138 0.107195 0.198496
2025-05-04 0.006021 0.010766 0.019001 0.034528 0.063553 0.116396 0.221997
2025-05-11 0.005579 0.010206 0.018426 0.034309 0.064777 0.121738 0.238819
2025-05-18 0.005241 0.009799 0.018084 0.034477 0.066723 0.128585 0.259274
2025-05-25 0.004851 0.009261 0.017450 0.034020 0.067398 0.133019 0.275313
2025-06-01 0.004641 0.009044 0.017398 0.034686 0.070349 0.142202 0.302146
2025-06-08 0.004329 0.008600 0.016867 0.034340 0.071197 0.147191 0.320576
2025-06-15 0.004200 0.008510 0.017024 0.035406 0.075074 0.158812 0.354749
2025-06-22 0.003854 0.007947 0.016181 0.034303 0.074220 0.160287 0.366309
2025-06-29 0.003602 0.007557 0.015659 0.033834 0.074689 0.164654 0.384943
2025-07-06 0.003295 0.007027 0.014802 0.032556 0.073235 0.164601 0.393146
2025-07-13 0.003223 0.006995 0.014996 0.033627 0.077205 0.177209 0.433229